Give a Belief a Fair Chance to Surprise You

When a belief feels obvious, write down what you would expect to observe if it were true—and what might make you reconsider it.

For example, instead of “people only change their minds when shown evidence,” try: “When someone is uncertain, a relevant piece of evidence may affect what they think.” Then ask what else could explain a change, and what evidence would distinguish those explanations.

This isn’t a demand to test every conviction. Personal values aren’t lab hypotheses, and one example rarely settles a broad claim. The point is to make room for evidence that could genuinely surprise you, rather than collecting only examples that fit.

A belief becomes easier to examine when it has a clear meaning, a possible alternative and some honest room for revision.