What Makes an Explanation Feel Convincing?

Two explanations can fit the same experience but point to different conclusions. Imagine a friend stops replying as often: one person sees a change in priorities; another thinks the friend may simply be busy. The observation is the same, but each explanation highlights different possibilities.

What makes you trust one explanation over another when both seem plausible? Is it how well it fits what you already know, whether it can be checked, or what new evidence might distinguish them? Sometimes the most useful next step is not choosing a story, but noticing what each one assumes.