What Should a Scenario Exercise Change?

Scenario planning is most useful when it changes a decision—not when it produces three polished stories about the future.

Suppose a team is weighing an investment that depends on uncertain demand. Should a scenario exercise mainly help the team stress-test the plan, identify early signals that would prompt a change, or decide which commitments should wait until more is known?

Those are related aims, but they lead to different research and different next steps. Which output would make a scenario exercise worth the time in your work—and what decision should it inform?